Diyarbekirspor 4–0 Tepecikspor: Result & Stats

Diyarbekirspor

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tepecikspor

10/11/2023

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundDiyarbakır Yeni Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Diyarbekirspor85%

×Draw12%

Tepecikspor3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiyarbekirsporExpected goals in this matchTepecikspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.30

Diyarbekirspor

2.50

Tepecikspor

0.30

Diyarbekirspor creates 733% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.40

creates per match

0.40

0.20

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Diyarbekirspor

2.40

Tepecikspor

0.40

allows per match

Diyarbekirspor

0.20

Tepecikspor

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diyarbekirspor+0.00on par

Tepecikspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No76
Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diyarbekirspor ↓

Tepecikspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–019%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–016%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–13%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Diyarbekirspor or draw

97%

Diyarbekirspor or Tepecikspor

88%

Draw or Tepecikspor

15%

Winning margin

Diyarbekirspor wins by 2+

63%

Tepecikspor wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Diyarbekirspor 1+ goals

92%

Diyarbekirspor 2+ goals

71%

Diyarbekirspor 3+ goals

45%

Tepecikspor 1+ goals

26%

Tepecikspor 2+ goals

4%

Tepecikspor 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Diyarbekirspor (draw refunded)

97%

Tepecikspor (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diyarbekirspor at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Tepecikspor away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diyarbekirspor attack 2.40 + Tepecikspor defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.50

Tepecikspor attack 0.40 + Diyarbekirspor defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Diyarbekirspor scores more

85%

level

12%

Tepecikspor scores more

3%

Diyarbekirspor at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Diyarbekirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff