Diyarbekirspor 3–0 Kars 36: Result & Stats

Diyarbekirspor

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kars 36

9/29/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundDiyarbakır Yeni Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Diyarbekirspor65%

×Draw19%

Kars 3616%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiyarbekirsporExpected goals in this matchKars 36

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.10

Diyarbekirspor

2.37

Kars 36

1.10

Diyarbekirspor creates 115% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.40

creates per match

2.00

0.20

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Diyarbekirspor

2.40

Kars 36

2.00

allows per match

Diyarbekirspor

0.20

Kars 36

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diyarbekirspor+0.00on par

Kars 36+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diyarbekirspor ↓

Kars 36 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Diyarbekirspor or draw

84%

Diyarbekirspor or Kars 36

81%

Draw or Kars 36

35%

Winning margin

Diyarbekirspor wins by 2+

43%

Kars 36 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Diyarbekirspor 1+ goals

91%

Diyarbekirspor 2+ goals

68%

Diyarbekirspor 3+ goals

42%

Kars 36 1+ goals

67%

Kars 36 2+ goals

30%

Kars 36 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Diyarbekirspor (draw refunded)

80%

Kars 36 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diyarbekirspor at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Kars 36 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diyarbekirspor attack 2.40 + Kars 36 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.37

Kars 36 attack 2.00 + Diyarbekirspor defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Diyarbekirspor scores more

65%

level

19%

Kars 36 scores more

16%

Diyarbekirspor at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Diyarbekirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff