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Diyarbekirspor vs Eskişehirspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Diyarbekirspor
Diyarbekirspor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Eskişehirspor
Eskişehirspor
9/25/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundDiyarbakır Yeni Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Diyarbekirspor75%
×Draw18%
Eskişehirspor7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diyarbekirspor
2.08
Eskişehirspor
0.47

Diyarbekirspor creates 343% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Diyarbekirspor
2.40
Eskişehirspor
0.75

allows per match

Diyarbekirspor
0.20
Eskişehirspor
1.75

finishing

Diyarbekirspor+0.00on par
Eskişehirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diyarbekirspor ↓

Eskişehirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Diyarbekirspor or draw
93%
Diyarbekirspor or Eskişehirspor
82%
Draw or Eskişehirspor
25%

Winning margin

Diyarbekirspor wins by 2+
49%
Eskişehirspor wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Diyarbekirspor 1+ goals
87%
Diyarbekirspor 2+ goals
61%
Diyarbekirspor 3+ goals
34%
Eskişehirspor 1+ goals
37%
Eskişehirspor 2+ goals
8%
Eskişehirspor 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Diyarbekirspor (draw refunded)
91%
Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diyarbekirspor at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Eskişehirspor away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diyarbekirspor attack 2.40 + Eskişehirspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.08

Eskişehirspor attack 0.75 + Diyarbekirspor defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Diyarbekirspor scores more
75%
level
18%
Eskişehirspor scores more
7%

Diyarbekirspor at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Diyarbekirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Diyarbekirspor 2–1 Eskişehirspor

Diyarbekirspor beat Eskişehirspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Diyarbakır Yeni Stadyumu in Diyarbakır.