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Diyala vs Zakho — Iraqi League 2025

Diyala
Diyala
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Zakho
Zakho
Anas Malik 90+6'
Gustavo Henrique 90+1', 59'
Nasser Mohammedoh 48'
Mohammad Abboud 38'
1/9/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 13Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Diyala30%
×Draw30%
Zakho41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diyala
0.95
Zakho
1.16

Zakho creates 22% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 39 away

creates per match

Diyala
1.00
Zakho
1.03

allows per match

Diyala
1.28
Zakho
0.90

finishing

Diyala+0.00on par
Zakho+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diyala ↓

Zakho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Diyala or draw
59%
Diyala or Zakho
70%
Draw or Zakho
70%

Winning margin

Diyala wins by 2+
11%
Zakho wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Diyala 1+ goals
61%
Diyala 2+ goals
25%
Diyala 3+ goals
7%
Zakho 1+ goals
69%
Zakho 2+ goals
32%
Zakho 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Diyala (draw refunded)
42%
Zakho (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diyala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Zakho away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diyala attack 1.00 + Zakho defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Zakho attack 1.03 + Diyala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Diyala scores more
30%
level
30%
Zakho scores more
41%

Zakho at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Mohammad Abboud
48'
Nasser Mohammedoh
59'
Gustavo Henrique
90+1'
Gustavo Henrique
90+6'
Anas Malik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diyala vs Zakho

Zakho beat Diyala 4-1 in Iraqi League on January 9, 2025.

Goals: Mohammad Abboud (38'), Nasser Mohammedoh (48'), Gustavo Henrique (59', 90+1'), Anas Malik (90+6').

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.