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Diyala vs Karbala — Iraqi League 2020

Diyala
Diyala
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Karbala
Karbala
A. Sfaxi 77'
4/2/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 26Al-Madina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Diyala40%
×Draw29%
Karbala31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diyala
1.19
Karbala
1.02

Diyala creates 17% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 58 away

creates per match

Diyala
0.97
Karbala
0.81

allows per match

Diyala
1.24
Karbala
1.41

finishing

Diyala+0.00on par
Karbala+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diyala ↓

Karbala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Diyala or draw
69%
Diyala or Karbala
71%
Draw or Karbala
60%

Winning margin

Diyala wins by 2+
17%
Karbala wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Diyala 1+ goals
70%
Diyala 2+ goals
33%
Diyala 3+ goals
12%
Karbala 1+ goals
64%
Karbala 2+ goals
27%
Karbala 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Diyala (draw refunded)
56%
Karbala (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diyala at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

Karbala away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diyala attack 0.97 + Karbala defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Karbala attack 0.81 + Diyala defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Diyala scores more
40%
level
29%
Karbala scores more
31%

Diyala at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Diyala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

77'
A. Sfaxi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diyala vs Karbala

Diyala beat Karbala 1-0 in Iraqi League on April 2, 2025.

Goals: A. Sfaxi (77').

The match was played at Al-Madina International Stadium in Baghdad.