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Diyala vs Al-Karma — Iraqi League 2020

Diyala
Diyala
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Karma
Al-Karma
1/19/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 15Al Kut Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Diyala29%
×Draw29%
Al-Karma42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diyala
0.98
Al-Karma
1.25

Al-Karma creates 28% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 37 away

creates per match

Diyala
0.97
Al-Karma
1.27

allows per match

Diyala
1.24
Al-Karma
1.00

finishing

Diyala+0.00on par
Al-Karma+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diyala ↓

Al-Karma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Diyala or draw
58%
Diyala or Al-Karma
71%
Draw or Al-Karma
71%

Winning margin

Diyala wins by 2+
11%
Al-Karma wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Diyala 1+ goals
62%
Diyala 2+ goals
26%
Diyala 3+ goals
8%
Al-Karma 1+ goals
71%
Al-Karma 2+ goals
36%
Al-Karma 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Diyala (draw refunded)
41%
Al-Karma (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diyala at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

Al-Karma away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diyala attack 0.97 + Al-Karma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Al-Karma attack 1.27 + Diyala defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Diyala scores more
29%
level
29%
Al-Karma scores more
42%

Al-Karma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al-Karma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diyala vs Al-Karma

Diyala and Al-Karma drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Al Kut Stadium in Al Kut.