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Diyala vs Al Karkh — Iraqi League 2025

Diyala
Diyala
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Karkh
Al Karkh
C. Opare 52'
A. Sfaxi 45'
6/14/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 35Al-Madina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Diyala32%
×Draw28%
Al Karkh40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diyala
1.09
Al Karkh
1.26

Al Karkh creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Diyala
1.00
Al Karkh
1.24

allows per match

Diyala
1.28
Al Karkh
1.18

finishing

Diyala+0.00on par
Al Karkh+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diyala ↓

Al Karkh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Diyala or draw
60%
Diyala or Al Karkh
72%
Draw or Al Karkh
68%

Winning margin

Diyala wins by 2+
13%
Al Karkh wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Diyala 1+ goals
66%
Diyala 2+ goals
30%
Diyala 3+ goals
10%
Al Karkh 1+ goals
72%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
36%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Diyala (draw refunded)
44%
Al Karkh (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diyala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Al Karkh away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diyala attack 1.00 + Al Karkh defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Al Karkh attack 1.24 + Diyala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Diyala scores more
32%
level
28%
Al Karkh scores more
40%

Al Karkh at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Karkh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
A. Sfaxi
52'
C. Opare

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diyala vs Al Karkh

Diyala beat Al Karkh 2-0 in Iraqi League on June 14, 2025.

Goals: A. Sfaxi (45'), C. Opare (52').

The match was played at Al-Madina International Stadium in Baghdad.