Dives-Cabourg 2–0 Saint-Denis: Result & Stats

Dives-Cabourg

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Saint-Denis

A. Bekombo 75'

T. Fontaine 59'

12/21/2024

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade André Heurtematte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dives-Cabourg51%

×Draw20%

Saint-Denis29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dives-CabourgExpected goals in this matchSaint-Denis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.78

Dives-Cabourg

2.38

Saint-Denis

1.78

Dives-Cabourg creates 34% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

2.75

creates per match

2.57

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dives-Cabourg

2.75

Saint-Denis

2.57

allows per match

Dives-Cabourg

1.00

Saint-Denis

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dives-Cabourg+0.00on par

Saint-Denis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dives-Cabourg ↓

Saint-Denis →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Dives-Cabourg or draw

71%

Dives-Cabourg or Saint-Denis

80%

Draw or Saint-Denis

49%

Winning margin

Dives-Cabourg wins by 2+

31%

Saint-Denis wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dives-Cabourg 1+ goals

91%

Dives-Cabourg 2+ goals

68%

Dives-Cabourg 3+ goals

42%

Saint-Denis 1+ goals

83%

Saint-Denis 2+ goals

53%

Saint-Denis 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Dives-Cabourg (draw refunded)

64%

Saint-Denis (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dives-Cabourg at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Saint-Denis away — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dives-Cabourg attack 2.75 + Saint-Denis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Saint-Denis attack 2.57 + Dives-Cabourg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dives-Cabourg scores more

51%

level

20%

Saint-Denis scores more

29%

Dives-Cabourg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dives-Cabourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

F. Suzanne

41'

J. Damour

46'

M. Cayssol← A. Jeanne

59'

T. Fontaine

68'

T. Razafindrasata← J. Damour

72'

F. Vilela Gomes

75'

A. Bekombo

78'

K. Imira← D. Bertrand

80'

K. Lefrançois← T. Fontaine

90+5'

M. Tiehi← A. Bekombo

90+1'

W. Suret← B. Botuly

90+1'

D. Bokuma← M. El Wakil

Dives-Cabourg

Saint-Denis

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Bekombo

▼

Wakil

Manager: P. Clément

46'▲M. Cayssol←▼A. Jeanne

80'▲K. Lefrançois←▼T. Fontaine

90+5'▲M. Tiehi←▼A. Bekombo

90+1'▲W. Suret←▼B. Botuly

90+1'▲D. Bokuma←▼M. El Wakil

Dives-Cabourg substitutes

17Cayssol15Lefrançois14Tiehi12Suret18Bokuma20Clément16Pickeu19Barteau13Tbahriti

Manager: F. Bachelier

68'▲T. Razafindrasata←▼J. Damour

78'▲K. Imira←▼D. Bertrand

Saint-Denis substitutes

12Razafindrasata17Imira16Ninon15Alpou14Attoumani13Barry18Boto