Discoveries 4–2 Shaita: Result & Stats

Discoveries

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Shaita

1/8/2025

LFA First Division · Round 15TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Discoveries46%

×Draw23%

Shaita30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiscoveriesExpected goals in this matchShaita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.39

Discoveries

1.77

Shaita

1.39

Discoveries creates 27% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.46

creates per match

1.62

1.15

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Discoveries

1.46

Shaita

1.62

allows per match

Discoveries

1.15

Shaita

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Discoveries+0.00on par

Shaita+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Discoveries ↓

Shaita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Discoveries or draw

70%

Discoveries or Shaita

77%

Draw or Shaita

54%

Winning margin

Discoveries wins by 2+

25%

Shaita wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Discoveries 1+ goals

83%

Discoveries 2+ goals

53%

Discoveries 3+ goals

26%

Shaita 1+ goals

75%

Shaita 2+ goals

40%

Shaita 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Discoveries (draw refunded)

60%

Shaita (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Discoveries at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Shaita away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Discoveries attack 1.46 + Shaita defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.77

Shaita attack 1.62 + Discoveries defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Discoveries scores more

46%

level

23%

Shaita scores more

30%

Discoveries at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Discoveries will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff