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Discoveries vs SC United Bantams — USL League Two 2018

Discoveries
Discoveries
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
SC United Bantams
SC United Bantams
7/6/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 11Nation Ford Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Discoveries32%
×Draw27%
SC United Bantams41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Discoveries
1.11
SC United Bantams
1.30

SC United Bantams creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 44 away

creates per match

Discoveries
0.80
SC United Bantams
1.80

allows per match

Discoveries
0.80
SC United Bantams
1.43

finishing

Discoveries+0.00on par
SC United Bantams+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Discoveries ↓

SC United Bantams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Discoveries or draw
59%
Discoveries or SC United Bantams
73%
Draw or SC United Bantams
68%

Winning margin

Discoveries wins by 2+
13%
SC United Bantams wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Discoveries 1+ goals
67%
Discoveries 2+ goals
30%
Discoveries 3+ goals
10%
SC United Bantams 1+ goals
73%
SC United Bantams 2+ goals
37%
SC United Bantams 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Discoveries (draw refunded)
44%
SC United Bantams (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Discoveries at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

SC United Bantams away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.43 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Discoveries attack 0.80 + SC United Bantams defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

SC United Bantams attack 1.80 + Discoveries defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Discoveries scores more
32%
level
27%
SC United Bantams scores more
41%

SC United Bantams at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SC United Bantams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Discoveries vs SC United Bantams

SC United Bantams beat Discoveries 2-1 in USL League Two on July 6, 2019.

The match was played at Nation Ford Stadium.