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Discoveries vs LPRC Oilers — LFA First Division 2020

Discoveries
Discoveries
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
LPRC Oilers
LPRC Oilers
10/26/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Discoveries36%
×Draw26%
LPRC Oilers38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Discoveries
1.35
LPRC Oilers
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 75 away

creates per match

Discoveries
1.46
LPRC Oilers
1.60

allows per match

Discoveries
1.15
LPRC Oilers
1.24

finishing

Discoveries+0.00on par
LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Discoveries ↓

LPRC Oilers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Discoveries or draw
62%
Discoveries or LPRC Oilers
74%
Draw or LPRC Oilers
64%

Winning margin

Discoveries wins by 2+
16%
LPRC Oilers wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Discoveries 1+ goals
74%
Discoveries 2+ goals
39%
Discoveries 3+ goals
15%
LPRC Oilers 1+ goals
75%
LPRC Oilers 2+ goals
40%
LPRC Oilers 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Discoveries (draw refunded)
49%
LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Discoveries at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

LPRC Oilers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Discoveries attack 1.46 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

LPRC Oilers attack 1.60 + Discoveries defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Discoveries scores more
36%
level
26%
LPRC Oilers scores more
38%

LPRC Oilers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Discoveries vs LPRC Oilers

LPRC Oilers beat Discoveries 1-0 in LFA First Division on October 26, 2025.