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Discoveries vs Fassell — LFA First Division 2020

Discoveries
Discoveries
FT
0 – 1
Fassell
Fassell
10/24/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 6TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Discoveries27%
×Draw26%
Fassell48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Discoveries
1.07
Fassell
1.52

Fassell creates 42% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

creates per match

Discoveries
1.46
Fassell
1.89

allows per match

Discoveries
1.15
Fassell
0.68

finishing

Discoveries+0.00on par
Fassell+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Discoveries ↓

Fassell →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Discoveries or draw
52%
Discoveries or Fassell
74%
Draw or Fassell
73%

Winning margin

Discoveries wins by 2+
10%
Fassell wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Discoveries 1+ goals
66%
Discoveries 2+ goals
29%
Discoveries 3+ goals
9%
Fassell 1+ goals
78%
Fassell 2+ goals
45%
Fassell 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Discoveries (draw refunded)
36%
Fassell (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Discoveries at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Fassell away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Discoveries attack 1.46 + Fassell defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.07

Fassell attack 1.89 + Discoveries defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Discoveries scores more
27%
level
26%
Fassell scores more
48%

Fassell at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fassell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Discoveries vs Fassell

Fassell beat Discoveries 1-0 in LFA First Division on October 24, 2024.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.