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Discoveries vs Dalton Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

Discoveries
Discoveries
FT
2 – 0
Dalton Red Wolves
Dalton Red Wolves
7/14/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 1Nation Ford Stadium (Whiteville Park, South Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Discoveries44%
×Draw27%
Dalton Red Wolves29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Discoveries
1.34
Dalton Red Wolves
1.04

Discoveries creates 29% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

creates per match

Discoveries
0.80
Dalton Red Wolves
1.29

allows per match

Discoveries
0.80
Dalton Red Wolves
1.88

finishing

Discoveries+0.00on par
Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Discoveries ↓

Dalton Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Discoveries or draw
71%
Discoveries or Dalton Red Wolves
73%
Draw or Dalton Red Wolves
56%

Winning margin

Discoveries wins by 2+
20%
Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Discoveries 1+ goals
74%
Discoveries 2+ goals
39%
Discoveries 3+ goals
15%
Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals
65%
Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals
28%
Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Discoveries (draw refunded)
60%
Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Discoveries at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Dalton Red Wolves away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Discoveries attack 0.80 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.34

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.29 + Discoveries defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Discoveries scores more
44%
level
27%
Dalton Red Wolves scores more
29%

Discoveries at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Discoveries will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Discoveries vs Dalton Red Wolves

Discoveries beat Dalton Red Wolves 2-0 in USL League Two on July 14, 2019.

The match was played at Nation Ford Stadium (Whiteville Park, South Carolina).