Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Discoveries vs Charlotte Eagles — USL League Two 2018

Discoveries
Discoveries
FT
0 – 1
Charlotte Eagles
Charlotte Eagles
6/29/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 5Nation Ford Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Discoveries36%
×Draw26%
Charlotte Eagles37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Discoveries
1.30
Charlotte Eagles
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 45 away

creates per match

Discoveries
0.80
Charlotte Eagles
1.84

allows per match

Discoveries
0.80
Charlotte Eagles
1.80

finishing

Discoveries+0.00on par
Charlotte Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Discoveries ↓

Charlotte Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Discoveries or draw
63%
Discoveries or Charlotte Eagles
74%
Draw or Charlotte Eagles
64%

Winning margin

Discoveries wins by 2+
16%
Charlotte Eagles wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Discoveries 1+ goals
73%
Discoveries 2+ goals
37%
Discoveries 3+ goals
14%
Charlotte Eagles 1+ goals
73%
Charlotte Eagles 2+ goals
38%
Charlotte Eagles 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Discoveries (draw refunded)
49%
Charlotte Eagles (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Discoveries at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Charlotte Eagles away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Discoveries attack 0.80 + Charlotte Eagles defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.30

Charlotte Eagles attack 1.84 + Discoveries defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Discoveries scores more
36%
level
26%
Charlotte Eagles scores more
37%

Charlotte Eagles at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Charlotte Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Discoveries vs Charlotte Eagles

Charlotte Eagles beat Discoveries 1-0 in USL League Two on June 29, 2019.

The match was played at Nation Ford Stadium.