Diriangén 3–0 UNAN Managua: Result & Stats

Diriangén

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

UNAN Managua

7/13/2025

Copa Nicaragua · Semi-finalsEstadio Cacique Diriangén

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Diriangén75%

×Draw16%

UNAN Managua9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiriangénExpected goals in this matchUNAN Managua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

0.67

Diriangén

2.37

UNAN Managua

0.67

Diriangén creates 254% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

3.40

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Diriangén

3.40

UNAN Managua

0.33

allows per match

Diriangén

1.00

UNAN Managua

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diriangén+0.00on par

UNAN Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diriangén ↓

UNAN Managua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Diriangén or draw

91%

Diriangén or UNAN Managua

84%

Draw or UNAN Managua

25%

Winning margin

Diriangén wins by 2+

52%

UNAN Managua wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Diriangén 1+ goals

91%

Diriangén 2+ goals

68%

Diriangén 3+ goals

42%

UNAN Managua 1+ goals

49%

UNAN Managua 2+ goals

15%

UNAN Managua 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Diriangén (draw refunded)

90%

UNAN Managua (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diriangén at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

UNAN Managua away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diriangén attack 3.40 + UNAN Managua defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.37

UNAN Managua attack 0.33 + Diriangén defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Diriangén scores more

75%

level

16%

UNAN Managua scores more

9%

Diriangén at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Diriangén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff