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Diriangén vs UNAN Managua — Primera Division 2026

Diriangén
Diriangén
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
UNAN Managua
UNAN Managua
11/9/2023Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 16Estadio Cacique Diriangén

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Diriangén65%
×Draw20%
UNAN Managua15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diriangén
2.08
UNAN Managua
0.89

Diriangén creates 134% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 93 away

creates per match

Diriangén
2.19
UNAN Managua
1.08

allows per match

Diriangén
0.70
UNAN Managua
1.98

finishing

Diriangén+0.00on par
UNAN Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diriangén ↓

UNAN Managua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Diriangén or draw
85%
Diriangén or UNAN Managua
80%
Draw or UNAN Managua
35%

Winning margin

Diriangén wins by 2+
40%
UNAN Managua wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Diriangén 1+ goals
87%
Diriangén 2+ goals
61%
Diriangén 3+ goals
34%
UNAN Managua 1+ goals
59%
UNAN Managua 2+ goals
22%
UNAN Managua 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Diriangén (draw refunded)
81%
UNAN Managua (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diriangén at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.70 · 151 matches

UNAN Managua away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.98 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diriangén attack 2.19 + UNAN Managua defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.08

UNAN Managua attack 1.08 + Diriangén defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Diriangén scores more
65%
level
20%
UNAN Managua scores more
15%

Diriangén at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Diriangén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Diriangén 1–2 UNAN Managua

UNAN Managua beat Diriangén 2-1 in Primera Division on November 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Cacique Diriangén in Diriamba.