Diriangén 0–2 Orgánica Masachapa: Result & Stats

Diriangén

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Orgánica Masachapa

7/30/2023

Primera Division · Apertura - 1Estadio Cacique Diriangén

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Diriangén71%

×Draw17%

Orgánica Masachapa11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiriangénExpected goals in this matchOrgánica Masachapa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.79

Diriangén

2.31

Orgánica Masachapa

0.79

Diriangén creates 192% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 18 away

2.19

creates per match

0.89

0.70

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Diriangén

2.19

Orgánica Masachapa

0.89

allows per match

Diriangén

0.70

Orgánica Masachapa

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diriangén+0.00on par

Orgánica Masachapa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diriangén ↓

Orgánica Masachapa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Diriangén or draw

89%

Diriangén or Orgánica Masachapa

83%

Draw or Orgánica Masachapa

29%

Winning margin

Diriangén wins by 2+

48%

Orgánica Masachapa wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Diriangén 1+ goals

90%

Diriangén 2+ goals

67%

Diriangén 3+ goals

40%

Orgánica Masachapa 1+ goals

55%

Orgánica Masachapa 2+ goals

19%

Orgánica Masachapa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Diriangén (draw refunded)

86%

Orgánica Masachapa (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diriangén at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.70 · 151 matches

Orgánica Masachapa away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diriangén attack 2.19 + Orgánica Masachapa defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.31

Orgánica Masachapa attack 0.89 + Diriangén defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Diriangén scores more

71%

level

17%

Orgánica Masachapa scores more

11%

Diriangén at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Diriangén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff