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Dire Dawa Kenema vs Shashemene Kenema — Premier League 2019

Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shashemene Kenema
Shashemene Kenema
4/20/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dire Dawa Kenema36%
×Draw29%
Shashemene Kenema35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.12
Shashemene Kenema
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
0.97
Shashemene Kenema
0.87

allows per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.34
Shashemene Kenema
1.27

finishing

Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par
Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dire Dawa Kenema ↓

Shashemene Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dire Dawa Kenema or draw
65%
Dire Dawa Kenema or Shashemene Kenema
71%
Draw or Shashemene Kenema
64%

Winning margin

Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
15%
Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
67%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
31%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
10%
Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals
67%
Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals
30%
Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
51%
Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dire Dawa Kenema at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Shashemene Kenema away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.97 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.12

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.87 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
36%
level
29%
Shashemene Kenema scores more
35%

Dire Dawa Kenema at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dire Dawa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dire Dawa Kenema 1–0 Shashemene Kenema

Dire Dawa Kenema beat Shashemene Kenema 1-0 in Premier League on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.