Diosgyori VTK 2–0 Mezokovesd-zsory: Result & Stats

Diosgyori VTK

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mezokovesd-zsory

11/11/2023

League #271 · Round 13Diósgyőri Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Diosgyori VTK51%

×Draw24%

Mezokovesd-zsory25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Diosgyori VTKExpected goals in this matchMezokovesd-zsory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.08

Diosgyori VTK

1.67

Mezokovesd-zsory

1.08

Diosgyori VTK creates 55% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

0.67

1.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Diosgyori VTK

1.33

Mezokovesd-zsory

0.67

allows per match

Diosgyori VTK

1.50

Mezokovesd-zsory

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diosgyori VTK+0.00on par

Mezokovesd-zsory+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diosgyori VTK ↓

Mezokovesd-zsory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Diosgyori VTK or draw

75%

Diosgyori VTK or Mezokovesd-zsory

76%

Draw or Mezokovesd-zsory

49%

Winning margin

Diosgyori VTK wins by 2+

27%

Mezokovesd-zsory wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Diosgyori VTK 1+ goals

81%

Diosgyori VTK 2+ goals

50%

Diosgyori VTK 3+ goals

23%

Mezokovesd-zsory 1+ goals

66%

Mezokovesd-zsory 2+ goals

29%

Mezokovesd-zsory 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Diosgyori VTK (draw refunded)

67%

Mezokovesd-zsory (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diosgyori VTK at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Mezokovesd-zsory away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diosgyori VTK attack 1.33 + Mezokovesd-zsory defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Mezokovesd-zsory attack 0.67 + Diosgyori VTK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Diosgyori VTK scores more

51%

level

24%

Mezokovesd-zsory scores more

25%

Diosgyori VTK at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Diosgyori VTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff