Diósgyőr II 5–2 Újpest II: Result & Stats

Diósgyőr II

FT

5 – 2

Újpest II

10/13/2021

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 11DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Diósgyőr II41%

×Draw24%

Újpest II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Diósgyőr IIExpected goals in this matchÚjpest II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.48

Diósgyőr II

1.61

Újpest II

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 34 away

1.73

creates per match

1.26

1.69

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Diósgyőr II

1.73

Újpest II

1.26

allows per match

Diósgyőr II

1.69

Újpest II

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diósgyőr II+0.00on par

Újpest II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diósgyőr II ↓

Újpest II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Diósgyőr II or draw

65%

Diósgyőr II or Újpest II

76%

Draw or Újpest II

59%

Winning margin

Diósgyőr II wins by 2+

21%

Újpest II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Diósgyőr II 1+ goals

80%

Diósgyőr II 2+ goals

48%

Diósgyőr II 3+ goals

22%

Újpest II 1+ goals

77%

Újpest II 2+ goals

43%

Újpest II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)

54%

Újpest II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diósgyőr II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 110 matches

Újpest II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diósgyőr II attack 1.73 + Újpest II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.61

Újpest II attack 1.26 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Diósgyőr II scores more

41%

level

24%

Újpest II scores more

35%

Diósgyőr II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Diósgyőr II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff