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Diósgyőr II vs Tállya — NB III - Northeast 2019

Diósgyőr II
Diósgyőr II
FT
2 – 1
Tállya
Tállya
10/18/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 14DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Diósgyőr II52%
×Draw22%
Tállya26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diósgyőr II
2.02
Tállya
1.39

Diósgyőr II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 47 away

creates per match

Diósgyőr II
1.73
Tállya
1.09

allows per match

Diósgyőr II
1.69
Tállya
2.32

finishing

Diósgyőr II+0.00on par
Tállya+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diósgyőr II ↓

Tállya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Diósgyőr II or draw
74%
Diósgyőr II or Tállya
78%
Draw or Tállya
48%

Winning margin

Diósgyőr II wins by 2+
30%
Tállya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Diósgyőr II 1+ goals
87%
Diósgyőr II 2+ goals
60%
Diósgyőr II 3+ goals
33%
Tállya 1+ goals
75%
Tállya 2+ goals
40%
Tállya 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)
66%
Tállya (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diósgyőr II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 110 matches

Tállya away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.32 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diósgyőr II attack 1.73 + Tállya defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.02

Tállya attack 1.09 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Diósgyőr II scores more
52%
level
22%
Tállya scores more
26%

Diósgyőr II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Diósgyőr II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Diósgyőr II 2–1 Tállya

Diósgyőr II beat Tállya 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya in Miskolc.