Diósgyőr II 2–1 Mátészalka: Result & Stats

Diósgyőr II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mátészalka

10/27/2024

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 13DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Diósgyőr II49%

×Draw23%

Mátészalka28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Diósgyőr IIExpected goals in this matchMátészalka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.34

Diósgyőr II

1.83

Mátészalka

1.34

Diósgyőr II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 15 away

1.73

creates per match

1.00

1.69

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Diósgyőr II

1.73

Mátészalka

1.00

allows per match

Diósgyőr II

1.69

Mátészalka

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diósgyőr II+0.00on par

Mátészalka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diósgyőr II ↓

Mátészalka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Diósgyőr II or draw

72%

Diósgyőr II or Mátészalka

77%

Draw or Mátészalka

51%

Winning margin

Diósgyőr II wins by 2+

27%

Mátészalka wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Diósgyőr II 1+ goals

84%

Diósgyőr II 2+ goals

54%

Diósgyőr II 3+ goals

28%

Mátészalka 1+ goals

74%

Mátészalka 2+ goals

39%

Mátészalka 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)

63%

Mátészalka (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diósgyőr II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 110 matches

Mátészalka away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diósgyőr II attack 1.73 + Mátészalka defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mátészalka attack 1.00 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Diósgyőr II scores more

49%

level

23%

Mátészalka scores more

28%

Diósgyőr II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Diósgyőr II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff