Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Diósgyőr II vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Diósgyőr II
Diósgyőr II
FT
0 – 2
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
J. Mate 59', 28'
9/4/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 6DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Diósgyőr II39%
×Draw23%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diósgyőr II
1.63
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 38 away

creates per match

Diósgyőr II
1.73
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

allows per match

Diósgyőr II
1.69
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

finishing

Diósgyőr II+0.00on par
Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diósgyőr II ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Diósgyőr II or draw
62%
Diósgyőr II or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
77%
Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
61%

Winning margin

Diósgyőr II wins by 2+
19%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Diósgyőr II 1+ goals
80%
Diósgyőr II 2+ goals
48%
Diósgyőr II 3+ goals
22%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
80%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
48%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)
51%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diósgyőr II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 110 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diósgyőr II attack 1.73 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Diósgyőr II scores more
39%
level
23%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
38%

Diósgyőr II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Diósgyőr II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
J. Mate
59'
J. Mate
80'
B. Olah
81'
G. Lenart

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Diósgyőr II 0–2 Hajdúszoboszlói SE

Hajdúszoboszlói SE beat Diósgyőr II 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on September 4, 2021.

Goals: J. Mate (28', 59').

The match was played at DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya in Miskolc.