Diocesano 3–1 Olivenza: Result & Stats

Diocesano

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Olivenza

Luismi Cruz 62'

Daniel Rueda 25'

Matheus 15'

Borja Romero 86'

9/26/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 3Estadio Manuel Sánchez Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Diocesano51%

×Draw25%

Olivenza25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiocesanoExpected goals in this matchOlivenza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.06

Diocesano

1.64

Olivenza

1.06

Diocesano creates 55% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 93 away

1.71

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Diocesano

1.71

Olivenza

1.00

allows per match

Diocesano

1.11

Olivenza

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diocesano+0.00on par

Olivenza+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diocesano ↓

Olivenza →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Diocesano or draw

75%

Diocesano or Olivenza

75%

Draw or Olivenza

49%

Winning margin

Diocesano wins by 2+

27%

Olivenza wins by 2+

Team goals

Diocesano 1+ goals

81%

Diocesano 2+ goals

49%

Diocesano 3+ goals

23%

Olivenza 1+ goals

65%

Olivenza 2+ goals

29%

Olivenza 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Diocesano (draw refunded)

67%

Olivenza (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Diocesano at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.11 · 93 matches

Olivenza away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Diocesano attack 1.71 + Olivenza defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.64

Olivenza attack 1.00 + Diocesano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Diocesano scores more

51%

level

25%

Olivenza scores more

25%

Diocesano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Diocesano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Matheus

25'

Daniel Rueda

57'

Juanjo← Miguel Alvero

57'

Esteban Rodriguez← J. Montaño

57'

Joaqui Flores← Juanito

62'

Luismi Cruz

68'

Jesús Muriana← Daniel Rueda

78'

German Martin← Javi González

78'

Rubén Palmero← Matheus

78'

Raúl Silva← Alejandro Ragel

78'

David Ferrera← Alejandro Alvero

84'

David Andrada← Luismi Cruz

86'

Borja Romero

Diocesano

Olivenza

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Matheus

⚽

▼

Cruz

Adrià

⚽

▼

Rueda

Manager: Adolfo Senso

68'▲Jesús Muriana←▼Daniel Rueda

78'▲German Martin←▼Javi González

78'▲Rubén Palmero←▼Matheus

84'▲David Andrada←▼Luismi Cruz

Diocesano substitutes

MurianaMartinPalmeroAndrada

Manager: Jesus Acedo

57'▲Juanjo←▼Miguel Alvero

57'▲Esteban Rodriguez←▼J. Montaño

57'▲Joaqui Flores←▼Juanito

78'▲Raúl Silva←▼Alejandro Ragel

78'▲David Ferrera←▼Alejandro Alvero

Olivenza substitutes

JuanjoRodriguezFloresSilvaFerrera