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Diocesano vs Extremadura UD II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Diocesano
Diocesano
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
9/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2Estadio Manuel Sánchez Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Diocesano48%
×Draw26%
Extremadura UD II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diocesano
1.48
Extremadura UD II
1.02

Diocesano creates 45% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 42 away

creates per match

Diocesano
1.71
Extremadura UD II
0.93

allows per match

Diocesano
1.11
Extremadura UD II
1.24

finishing

Diocesano+0.00on par
Extremadura UD II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diocesano ↓

Extremadura UD II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Diocesano or draw
74%
Diocesano or Extremadura UD II
74%
Draw or Extremadura UD II
52%

Winning margin

Diocesano wins by 2+
24%
Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Diocesano 1+ goals
77%
Diocesano 2+ goals
43%
Diocesano 3+ goals
19%
Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
64%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
27%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Diocesano (draw refunded)
65%
Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diocesano at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.11 · 93 matches

Extremadura UD II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diocesano attack 1.71 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Extremadura UD II attack 0.93 + Diocesano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Diocesano scores more
48%
level
26%
Extremadura UD II scores more
26%

Diocesano at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Diocesano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Diocesano 0 – 1 Extremadura UD II

Extremadura UD II beat Diocesano 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Sánchez Delgado in Cáceres.