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Diocesano vs Don Álvaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Diocesano
Diocesano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Don Álvaro
Don Álvaro
3/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 28Estadio Manuel Sánchez Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Diocesano58%
×Draw23%
Don Álvaro19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diocesano
1.80
Don Álvaro
0.92

Diocesano creates 96% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 47 away

creates per match

Diocesano
1.71
Don Álvaro
0.72

allows per match

Diocesano
1.11
Don Álvaro
1.89

finishing

Diocesano+0.00on par
Don Álvaro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diocesano ↓

Don Álvaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Diocesano or draw
81%
Diocesano or Don Álvaro
77%
Draw or Don Álvaro
42%

Winning margin

Diocesano wins by 2+
33%
Don Álvaro wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Diocesano 1+ goals
83%
Diocesano 2+ goals
54%
Diocesano 3+ goals
27%
Don Álvaro 1+ goals
60%
Don Álvaro 2+ goals
23%
Don Álvaro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Diocesano (draw refunded)
75%
Don Álvaro (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diocesano at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.11 · 93 matches

Don Álvaro away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.89 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diocesano attack 1.71 + Don Álvaro defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.80

Don Álvaro attack 0.72 + Diocesano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Diocesano scores more
58%
level
23%
Don Álvaro scores more
19%

Diocesano at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Diocesano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diocesano vs Don Álvaro

Diocesano beat Don Álvaro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Sánchez Delgado in Cáceres.