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Diocesano vs Atlético Pueblonuevo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Diocesano
Diocesano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2/18/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 22Estadio Manuel Sánchez Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Diocesano59%
×Draw22%
Atlético Pueblonuevo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diocesano
1.91
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.98

Diocesano creates 95% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 66 away

creates per match

Diocesano
1.71
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.85

allows per match

Diocesano
1.11
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2.11

finishing

Diocesano+0.00on par
Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diocesano ↓

Atlético Pueblonuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Diocesano or draw
81%
Diocesano or Atlético Pueblonuevo
78%
Draw or Atlético Pueblonuevo
41%

Winning margin

Diocesano wins by 2+
35%
Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Diocesano 1+ goals
85%
Diocesano 2+ goals
57%
Diocesano 3+ goals
30%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Diocesano (draw refunded)
76%
Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diocesano at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.11 · 93 matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diocesano attack 1.71 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.91

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 0.85 + Diocesano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Diocesano scores more
59%
level
22%
Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
19%

Diocesano at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Diocesano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diocesano vs Atlético Pueblonuevo

Diocesano beat Atlético Pueblonuevo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Sánchez Delgado in Cáceres.