Dinaz Vyshhorod 1–0 Metalurh Zaporizhya

Dinaz Vyshhorod

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Metalurh Zaporizhya

11/25/2023

Persha Liga · Round 18Stadion Dinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Dinaz Vyshhorod42%

×Draw27%

Metalurh Zaporizhya32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinaz VyshhorodExpected goals in this matchMetalurh Zaporizhya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.14

Dinaz Vyshhorod

1.35

Metalurh Zaporizhya

1.14

Dinaz Vyshhorod creates 18% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 70 away

1.00

creates per match

0.86

1.41

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Dinaz Vyshhorod

1.00

Metalurh Zaporizhya

0.86

allows per match

Dinaz Vyshhorod

1.41

Metalurh Zaporizhya

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinaz Vyshhorod+0.00on par

Metalurh Zaporizhya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinaz Vyshhorod ↓

Metalurh Zaporizhya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dinaz Vyshhorod or draw

68%

Dinaz Vyshhorod or Metalurh Zaporizhya

73%

Draw or Metalurh Zaporizhya

58%

Winning margin

Dinaz Vyshhorod wins by 2+

19%

Metalurh Zaporizhya wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dinaz Vyshhorod 1+ goals

74%

Dinaz Vyshhorod 2+ goals

39%

Dinaz Vyshhorod 3+ goals

15%

Metalurh Zaporizhya 1+ goals

68%

Metalurh Zaporizhya 2+ goals

32%

Metalurh Zaporizhya 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinaz Vyshhorod (draw refunded)

57%

Metalurh Zaporizhya (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinaz Vyshhorod at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

Metalurh Zaporizhya away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinaz Vyshhorod attack 1.00 + Metalurh Zaporizhya defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Metalurh Zaporizhya attack 0.86 + Dinaz Vyshhorod defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinaz Vyshhorod scores more

42%

level

27%

Metalurh Zaporizhya scores more

32%

Dinaz Vyshhorod at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinaz Vyshhorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff