Dinaz Vyshhorod 3–1 Hirnyk-Sport: Result & Stats

Dinaz Vyshhorod

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hirnyk-Sport

9/3/2023

Persha Liga · Round 6Stadion Dinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Dinaz Vyshhorod40%

×Draw26%

Hirnyk-Sport34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinaz VyshhorodExpected goals in this matchHirnyk-Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.26

Dinaz Vyshhorod

1.40

Hirnyk-Sport

1.26

Dinaz Vyshhorod creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 65 away

1.00

creates per match

1.11

1.41

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Dinaz Vyshhorod

1.00

Hirnyk-Sport

1.11

allows per match

Dinaz Vyshhorod

1.41

Hirnyk-Sport

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinaz Vyshhorod+0.00on par

Hirnyk-Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinaz Vyshhorod ↓

Hirnyk-Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dinaz Vyshhorod or draw

66%

Dinaz Vyshhorod or Hirnyk-Sport

74%

Draw or Hirnyk-Sport

60%

Winning margin

Dinaz Vyshhorod wins by 2+

19%

Hirnyk-Sport wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dinaz Vyshhorod 1+ goals

75%

Dinaz Vyshhorod 2+ goals

41%

Dinaz Vyshhorod 3+ goals

17%

Hirnyk-Sport 1+ goals

72%

Hirnyk-Sport 2+ goals

36%

Hirnyk-Sport 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dinaz Vyshhorod (draw refunded)

54%

Hirnyk-Sport (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinaz Vyshhorod at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

Hirnyk-Sport away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.80 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinaz Vyshhorod attack 1.00 + Hirnyk-Sport defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Hirnyk-Sport attack 1.11 + Dinaz Vyshhorod defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinaz Vyshhorod scores more

40%

level

26%

Hirnyk-Sport scores more

34%

Dinaz Vyshhorod at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinaz Vyshhorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff