Dinaz Vyshhorod 4–0 AFSK Kyiv: Result & Stats

Dinaz Vyshhorod

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

AFSK Kyiv

S. Starenkyi 42'

S. Mayboroda 39'

A. Baftalovskyi 13'

S. Ichanskyi 5'

8/8/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 3Stadion Dinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Dinaz Vyshhorod60%

×Draw23%

AFSK Kyiv17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinaz VyshhorodExpected goals in this matchAFSK Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.82

Dinaz Vyshhorod

1.79

AFSK Kyiv

0.82

Dinaz Vyshhorod creates 118% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 12 away

1.67

creates per match

0.33

1.30

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Dinaz Vyshhorod

1.67

AFSK Kyiv

0.33

allows per match

Dinaz Vyshhorod

1.30

AFSK Kyiv

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinaz Vyshhorod+0.00on par

AFSK Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinaz Vyshhorod ↓

AFSK Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dinaz Vyshhorod or draw

83%

Dinaz Vyshhorod or AFSK Kyiv

77%

Draw or AFSK Kyiv

40%

Winning margin

Dinaz Vyshhorod wins by 2+

35%

AFSK Kyiv wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dinaz Vyshhorod 1+ goals

83%

Dinaz Vyshhorod 2+ goals

53%

Dinaz Vyshhorod 3+ goals

26%

AFSK Kyiv 1+ goals

56%

AFSK Kyiv 2+ goals

20%

AFSK Kyiv 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dinaz Vyshhorod (draw refunded)

78%

AFSK Kyiv (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinaz Vyshhorod at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

AFSK Kyiv away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinaz Vyshhorod attack 1.67 + AFSK Kyiv defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.79

AFSK Kyiv attack 0.33 + Dinaz Vyshhorod defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dinaz Vyshhorod scores more

60%

level

23%

AFSK Kyiv scores more

17%

Dinaz Vyshhorod at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dinaz Vyshhorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

13'

39'

42'

46'

B. Dukhota← D. Petrenko

46'

O. Apanchuk← V. Bovtruk

46'

B. Nagayskyi← D. Zelenko

46'

B. Olabyn← M. Neskey

56'

Y. Izotov← A. Voloshin

65'

E. Finchenko← V. Garnaga

80'

I. Sydorenko← V. Roenko

82'

Y. Maley← S. Starenkyi

86'

R. Kapanistyi← S. Mayboroda

89'

O. Studinikin← D. Sakhno

Dinaz

AFSK

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Mayboroda

⚽

Baftalovs

Manager: V. Bondarenko

46'▲B. Dukhota←▼D. Petrenko

46'▲O. Apanchuk←▼V. Bovtruk

56'▲Y. Izotov←▼A. Voloshin

82'▲Y. Maley←▼S. Starenkyi

86'▲R. Kapanistyi←▼S. Mayboroda

Dinaz Vyshhorod substitutes

DukhotaApanchukIzotovMaleyKapanistyi

Manager: V. Nivinskyi

46'▲B. Nagayskyi←▼D. Zelenko

46'▲B. Olabyn←▼M. Neskey

65'▲E. Finchenko←▼V. Garnaga

80'▲I. Sydorenko←▼V. Roenko

89'▲O. Studinikin←▼D. Sakhno

AFSK Kyiv substitutes

NagayskyiOlabynFinchenkoSydorenkoStudinikin

Druha Liga - Group A: Dinaz Vyshhorod 4–0 AFSK Kyiv

Dinaz Vyshhorod beat AFSK Kyiv 4-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on August 8, 2021.

Goals: S. Ichanskyi (5'), A. Baftalovskyi (13'), S. Mayboroda (39'), S. Starenkyi (42').

The match was played at Stadion Dinaz in Demidov.

Dinaz Vyshhorod vs AFSK Kyiv — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Druha Liga - Group A: Dinaz Vyshhorod 4–0 AFSK Kyiv