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Dinan Léhon vs Vitré — Coupe de France 2018

Dinan Léhon
Dinan Léhon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vitré
Vitré
12/9/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 8th RoundStade du Clos Gastel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dinan Léhon23%
×Draw23%
Vitré54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinan Léhon
1.06
Vitré
1.77

Vitré creates 67% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dinan Léhon
1.29
Vitré
1.83

allows per match

Dinan Léhon
1.71
Vitré
0.83

finishing

Dinan Léhon+0.00on par
Vitré+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinan Léhon ↓

Vitré →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dinan Léhon or draw
46%
Dinan Léhon or Vitré
77%
Draw or Vitré
77%

Winning margin

Dinan Léhon wins by 2+
8%
Vitré wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Dinan Léhon 1+ goals
65%
Dinan Léhon 2+ goals
29%
Dinan Léhon 3+ goals
9%
Vitré 1+ goals
83%
Vitré 2+ goals
53%
Vitré 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dinan Léhon (draw refunded)
30%
Vitré (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinan Léhon at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Vitré away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinan Léhon attack 1.29 + Vitré defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Vitré attack 1.83 + Dinan Léhon defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dinan Léhon scores more
23%
level
23%
Vitré scores more
54%

Vitré at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vitré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Dinan Léhon 2–0 Vitré

Dinan Léhon beat Vitré 2-0 in Coupe de France on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du Clos Gastel in Dinan.