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Dinan Léhon vs Reims — Coupe de France 2018

Dinan Léhon
Dinan Léhon
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Reims
Reimsadvanced
1/7/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade du Clos Gastel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dinan Léhon20%
×Draw21%
Reims59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinan Léhon
1.11
Reims
2.04

Reims creates 84% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dinan Léhon
1.29
Reims
2.36

allows per match

Dinan Léhon
1.71
Reims
0.93

finishing

Dinan Léhon+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinan Léhon ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dinan Léhon or draw
41%
Dinan Léhon or Reims
79%
Draw or Reims
80%

Winning margin

Dinan Léhon wins by 2+
8%
Reims wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Dinan Léhon 1+ goals
67%
Dinan Léhon 2+ goals
30%
Dinan Léhon 3+ goals
10%
Reims 1+ goals
87%
Reims 2+ goals
60%
Reims 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Dinan Léhon (draw refunded)
26%
Reims (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinan Léhon at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Reims away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinan Léhon attack 1.29 + Reims defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Reims attack 2.36 + Dinan Léhon defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dinan Léhon scores more
20%
level
21%
Reims scores more
59%

Reims at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Dinan Léhon 0–3 Reims

Reims beat Dinan Léhon 3-0 in Coupe de France on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du Clos Gastel in Dinan.