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Dinamo Zugdidi vs Sioni — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Dinamo Zugdidi
Dinamo Zugdidi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sioni
Sioni
10/14/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 29Tsentraluri Stadioni Ganmukhuri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo Zugdidi39%
×Draw25%
Sioni37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.48
Sioni
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 87 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.58
Sioni
1.44

allows per match

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.42
Sioni
1.37

finishing

Dinamo Zugdidi+0.00on par
Sioni+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zugdidi ↓

Sioni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Zugdidi or draw
63%
Dinamo Zugdidi or Sioni
75%
Draw or Sioni
61%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zugdidi wins by 2+
19%
Sioni wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dinamo Zugdidi 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Zugdidi 2+ goals
43%
Dinamo Zugdidi 3+ goals
19%
Sioni 1+ goals
76%
Sioni 2+ goals
42%
Sioni 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zugdidi (draw refunded)
51%
Sioni (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zugdidi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Sioni away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.37 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zugdidi attack 1.58 + Sioni defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sioni attack 1.44 + Dinamo Zugdidi defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Zugdidi scores more
39%
level
25%
Sioni scores more
37%

Dinamo Zugdidi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Zugdidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Zugdidi vs Sioni

Dinamo Zugdidi beat Sioni 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on October 14, 2021.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni Ganmukhuri in Anaklia.