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Dinamo Zugdidi vs Merani Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Dinamo Zugdidi
Dinamo Zugdidi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
4/13/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 7Tsentraluri Stadioni Ganmukhuri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo Zugdidi47%
×Draw23%
Merani Tbilisi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.80
Merani Tbilisi
1.40

Dinamo Zugdidi creates 29% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 64 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.58
Merani Tbilisi
1.39

allows per match

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.42
Merani Tbilisi
2.03

finishing

Dinamo Zugdidi+0.00on par
Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zugdidi ↓

Merani Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dinamo Zugdidi or draw
70%
Dinamo Zugdidi or Merani Tbilisi
77%
Draw or Merani Tbilisi
53%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zugdidi wins by 2+
25%
Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo Zugdidi 1+ goals
83%
Dinamo Zugdidi 2+ goals
54%
Dinamo Zugdidi 3+ goals
27%
Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
75%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
41%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zugdidi (draw refunded)
61%
Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zugdidi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Merani Tbilisi away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.03 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zugdidi attack 1.58 + Merani Tbilisi defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.80

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.39 + Dinamo Zugdidi defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dinamo Zugdidi scores more
47%
level
23%
Merani Tbilisi scores more
30%

Dinamo Zugdidi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Zugdidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Zugdidi vs Merani Tbilisi

Dinamo Zugdidi beat Merani Tbilisi 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on April 13, 2021.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni Ganmukhuri in Anaklia.