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Dinamo Zugdidi vs Gareji — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Dinamo Zugdidi
Dinamo Zugdidi
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gareji
Gareji
8/6/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 21Tsentraluri Stadioni Ganmukhuri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo Zugdidi40%
×Draw25%
Gareji35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.52
Gareji
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 75 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.58
Gareji
1.40

allows per match

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.42
Gareji
1.45

finishing

Dinamo Zugdidi+0.00on par
Gareji+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zugdidi ↓

Gareji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Zugdidi or draw
65%
Dinamo Zugdidi or Gareji
75%
Draw or Gareji
60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zugdidi wins by 2+
20%
Gareji wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dinamo Zugdidi 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Zugdidi 2+ goals
45%
Dinamo Zugdidi 3+ goals
20%
Gareji 1+ goals
76%
Gareji 2+ goals
41%
Gareji 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zugdidi (draw refunded)
53%
Gareji (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zugdidi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Gareji away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zugdidi attack 1.58 + Gareji defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gareji attack 1.40 + Dinamo Zugdidi defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Zugdidi scores more
40%
level
25%
Gareji scores more
35%

Dinamo Zugdidi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Zugdidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Dinamo Zugdidi 3–0 Gareji

Dinamo Zugdidi beat Gareji 3-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on August 6, 2021.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni Ganmukhuri in Anaklia.