Dinamo Zugdidi 1–5 Gagra: Result & Stats

Dinamo Zugdidi

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Gagra

6/7/2021

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 15Tsentraluri Stadioni Ganmukhuri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo Zugdidi35%

×Draw25%

Gagra40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo ZugdidiExpected goals in this matchGagra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.46

Dinamo Zugdidi

1.36

Gagra

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 42 away

1.58

creates per match

1.50

1.42

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Dinamo Zugdidi

1.58

Gagra

1.50

allows per match

Dinamo Zugdidi

1.42

Gagra

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zugdidi+0.00on par

Gagra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zugdidi ↓

Gagra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Zugdidi or draw

60%

Dinamo Zugdidi or Gagra

75%

Draw or Gagra

65%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zugdidi wins by 2+

16%

Gagra wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Dinamo Zugdidi 1+ goals

74%

Dinamo Zugdidi 2+ goals

39%

Dinamo Zugdidi 3+ goals

16%

Gagra 1+ goals

77%

Gagra 2+ goals

43%

Gagra 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zugdidi (draw refunded)

47%

Gagra (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zugdidi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Gagra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zugdidi attack 1.58 + Gagra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Gagra attack 1.50 + Dinamo Zugdidi defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Zugdidi scores more

35%

level

25%

Gagra scores more

40%

Gagra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gagra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff