Dinamo Zagreb 7–0 Triglav: Result & Stats

Dinamo Zagreb

7 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Triglav

1/10/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Valbruna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb68%

×Draw18%

Triglav14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo ZagrebExpected goals in this matchTriglav

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

0.97

Dinamo Zagreb

2.35

Triglav

0.97

Dinamo Zagreb creates 142% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

2.71

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb

2.71

Triglav

1.00

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb

0.93

Triglav

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

Triglav+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

Triglav →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw

86%

Dinamo Zagreb or Triglav

82%

Draw or Triglav

32%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

45%

Triglav wins by 2+

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

90%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

68%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

41%

Triglav 1+ goals

62%

Triglav 2+ goals

25%

Triglav 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

83%

Triglav (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Triglav away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.71 + Triglav defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Triglav attack 1.00 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

68%

level

18%

Triglav scores more

14%

Dinamo Zagreb at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff