Dinamo Zagreb 3–2 Slask Wroclaw: Result & Stats

Dinamo Zagreb

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Slask Wroclaw

1/17/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Igraliste Nogometno Moela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb65%

×Draw19%

Slask Wroclaw16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo ZagrebExpected goals in this matchSlask Wroclaw

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.09

Dinamo Zagreb

2.35

Slask Wroclaw

1.09

Dinamo Zagreb creates 116% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

2.71

creates per match

1.25

0.93

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb

2.71

Slask Wroclaw

1.25

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb

0.93

Slask Wroclaw

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

Slask Wroclaw+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

Slask Wroclaw →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw

84%

Dinamo Zagreb or Slask Wroclaw

81%

Draw or Slask Wroclaw

35%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

43%

Slask Wroclaw wins by 2+

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

90%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

68%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

41%

Slask Wroclaw 1+ goals

66%

Slask Wroclaw 2+ goals

30%

Slask Wroclaw 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

80%

Slask Wroclaw (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Slask Wroclaw away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.71 + Slask Wroclaw defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Slask Wroclaw attack 1.25 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

65%

level

19%

Slask Wroclaw scores more

16%

Dinamo Zagreb at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff