Dinamo Zagreb 3–3 Rudes: Result & Stats | HNL

Dinamo Zagreb

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Rudes

S. Kulenović 52'

T. Kaneko 36'

F. Brodić 24'

J. Doležal 86'

V. Petković 77'

F. Topić 28'

5/26/2024

HNL · Round 36Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb75%

×Draw16%

Rudes9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo ZagrebExpected goals in this matchRudes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

0.66

Dinamo Zagreb

2.35

Rudes

0.66

Dinamo Zagreb creates 256% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 36 away

2.35

creates per match

0.61

0.70

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb

2.35

Rudes

0.61

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb

0.70

Rudes

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

Rudes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

Rudes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw

91%

Dinamo Zagreb or Rudes

84%

Draw or Rudes

25%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

52%

Rudes wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

90%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

68%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

41%

Rudes 1+ goals

48%

Rudes 2+ goals

14%

Rudes 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

90%

Rudes (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.70 · 144 matches

Rudes away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.35 + Rudes defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.35

Rudes attack 0.61 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

75%

level

16%

Rudes scores more

9%

Dinamo Zagreb at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

T. Kaneko

Dinamo Zagreb · M

9.3

Match Events

24'

F. Brodić↳ S. Kulenović

28'

F. Topić↳ A. Latković

32'

Ante Ćorić

36'

T. Kaneko↳ L. Vrbančić

46'

L. Magđinski← D. Korač

52'

S. Kulenović↳ F. Brodić

57'

V. Petković← A. Latković

58'

J. Doležal← A. Ćorić

58'

V. Šare← A. Camara

65'

T. Miljak← T. Kaneko

65'

M. Emreli← S. Kulenović

65'

A. Sušak← T. Majić

72'

L. Stojković← M. Bulat

72'

Z. Košćević← F. Brodić

73'

V. Vukmanović← R. Mašala

77'

V. Petković↳ J. Doležal

86'

J. Doležal↳ V. Šare

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DinamoRudes

Overview

59%Possession41%

33Total Shots10

8Corners2

5Fouls10

Shots

33Total Shots10

15On Target4

15Off Target2

3Blocked4

20Inside Box5

13Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

513Total Passes371

462Accurate Passes302

90%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves12

Discipline

5Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Dinamo Zagreb vs Rudes

Dinamo Zagreb and Rudes drew 3-3 in HNL on May 26, 2024.

Goals: F. Brodić (24'), F. Topić (28'), T. Kaneko (36'), S. Kulenović (52'), V. Petković (77'), J. Doležal (86').

Dinamo Zagreb controlled possession (59%) and registered 33 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb.

Dinamo Zagreb vs Rudes — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Dinamo Zagreb vs Rudes