Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 Rogaška: Result & Stats

Dinamo Zagreb

1 – 0

Rogaška

1/6/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb66%

×Draw19%

Rogaška15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo ZagrebExpected goals in this matchRogaška

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.97

Dinamo Zagreb

2.23

Rogaška

0.97

Dinamo Zagreb creates 130% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

2.71

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb

2.71

Rogaška

1.00

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb

0.93

Rogaška

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

Rogaška+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

Rogaška →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw

85%

Dinamo Zagreb or Rogaška

81%

Draw or Rogaška

34%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

42%

Rogaška wins by 2+

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

89%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

65%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

38%

Rogaška 1+ goals

62%

Rogaška 2+ goals

25%

Rogaška 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

81%

Rogaška (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Rogaška away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.71 + Rogaška defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.23

Rogaška attack 1.00 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

66%

level

19%

Rogaška scores more

15%

Dinamo Zagreb at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff