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Dinamo Zagreb vs PAOK — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagrebadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
PAOK
PAOK
3/7/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb53%
×Draw24%
PAOK23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zagreb
1.66
PAOK
1.00

Dinamo Zagreb creates 66% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb
2.20
PAOK
1.41

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb
0.60
PAOK
1.12

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par
PAOK+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

PAOK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw
77%
Dinamo Zagreb or PAOK
76%
Draw or PAOK
47%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+
28%
PAOK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals
81%
Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
49%
Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals
23%
PAOK 1+ goals
63%
PAOK 2+ goals
26%
PAOK 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)
70%
PAOK (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

PAOK away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.20 + PAOK defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.66

PAOK attack 1.41 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more
53%
level
24%
PAOK scores more
23%

Dinamo Zagreb at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 PAOK

Dinamo Zagreb beat PAOK 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on March 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb.