Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 NK Osijek: Result & Stats | HNL

Dinamo Zagreb

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

NK Osijek

A. Ademi 69'

P. Sučić 22'

4/12/2025

HNL · Round 29Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb57%

×Draw23%

NK Osijek20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo ZagrebExpected goals in this matchNK Osijek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.99

Dinamo Zagreb

1.82

NK Osijek

0.99

Dinamo Zagreb creates 84% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

2.35

creates per match

1.29

0.70

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb

2.35

NK Osijek

1.29

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb

0.70

NK Osijek

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

NK Osijek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

NK Osijek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw

80%

Dinamo Zagreb or NK Osijek

77%

Draw or NK Osijek

43%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

32%

NK Osijek wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

84%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

54%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

27%

NK Osijek 1+ goals

63%

NK Osijek 2+ goals

26%

NK Osijek 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

74%

NK Osijek (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.70 · 144 matches

NK Osijek away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.35 + NK Osijek defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.82

NK Osijek attack 1.29 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

57%

level

23%

NK Osijek scores more

20%

Dinamo Zagreb at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Baturina

Dinamo Zagreb · M

9.2

Match Events

22'

37'

38'

42'

42'

46'

L. Jelenić← J. Mersinaj

53'

B. Petković← W. Kanga

54'

A. Ademi← L. Stojković

56'

M. Soldo← Pedro Lima

57'

V. Jugović← H. Babec

64'

D. Bukvić← N. Omerović

69'

A. Ademi↳ M. Baturina

77'

A. Hoxha← M. Pjaca

80'

F. Živković← Tiago Dantas

88'

L. Kačavenda← M. Baturina

88'

S. Moharrami← R. Pierre-Gabriel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DinamoNK

Overview

63%Possession37%

22Total Shots6

1.94Expected Goals (xG)0.52

7Corners7

11Fouls12

Shots

22Total Shots6

9On Target3

6Off Target2

7Blocked1

15Inside Box3

7Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

613Total Passes355

549Accurate Passes297

90%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Osijek

Dinamo Zagreb beat NK Osijek 2-0 in HNL on April 12, 2025.

Goals: P. Sučić (22'), A. Ademi (69').

Dinamo Zagreb controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb.

Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Osijek — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Osijek