Dinamo Zagreb 4–1 Makedonija GjP: Result & Stats

Dinamo Zagreb

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Makedonija GjP

1/16/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Valbruna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb63%

×Draw20%

Makedonija GjP17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo ZagrebExpected goals in this matchMakedonija GjP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.97

Dinamo Zagreb

2.10

Makedonija GjP

0.97

Dinamo Zagreb creates 116% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

2.71

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb

2.71

Makedonija GjP

1.00

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb

0.93

Makedonija GjP

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

Makedonija GjP →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw

83%

Dinamo Zagreb or Makedonija GjP

80%

Draw or Makedonija GjP

37%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

39%

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

88%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

62%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

35%

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals

62%

Makedonija GjP 2+ goals

25%

Makedonija GjP 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

79%

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Makedonija GjP away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.71 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

Makedonija GjP attack 1.00 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

63%

level

20%

Makedonija GjP scores more

17%

Dinamo Zagreb at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff