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Dinamo Zagreb vs Inter Zapresic — HNL 2018

Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
11/2/2019HNLHNL · Round 14Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb71%
×Draw17%
Inter Zapresic11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zagreb
2.33
Inter Zapresic
0.81

Dinamo Zagreb creates 188% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 36 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb
2.35
Inter Zapresic
0.92

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb
0.70
Inter Zapresic
2.31

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par
Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

Inter Zapresic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw
89%
Dinamo Zagreb or Inter Zapresic
83%
Draw or Inter Zapresic
29%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+
48%
Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals
90%
Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
67%
Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals
41%
Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
56%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
19%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)
86%
Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.70 · 144 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.35 + Inter Zapresic defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.33

Inter Zapresic attack 0.92 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more
71%
level
17%
Inter Zapresic scores more
11%

Dinamo Zagreb at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 Inter Zapresic

Dinamo Zagreb beat Inter Zapresic 1-0 in HNL on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb.