Dinamo Zagreb U19 1–1 Lokomotiv Moskva U19

Dinamo Zagreb U19

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

L. Šipoš 12'

D. Faizullin 90+3'

2/19/2019

UEFA Youth League · Play-offsStadion Hitrec Kacian (Zagreb)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb U1944%

×Draw25%

Lokomotiv Moskva U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Zagreb U19Expected goals in this matchLokomotiv Moskva U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.29

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.57

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

1.29

Dinamo Zagreb U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.64

creates per match

1.67

0.91

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.64

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

1.67

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.91

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb U19 ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb U19 or draw

69%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 or Lokomotiv Moskva U19

75%

Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva U19

56%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+

22%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals

79%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals

46%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals

21%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1+ goals

72%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 2+ goals

37%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb U19 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 1.64 + Lokomotiv Moskva U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 attack 1.67 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more

44%

level

25%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 scores more

31%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

L. Šipoš↳ A. Marin

46'

D. Faizullin← V. Karapuzov

46'

G. Osnov← V. Loginov

65'

D. Chernyakov← M. Petrov

82'

D. Kapitanović← R. Baturina

82'

M. Turischev← N. Iosifov

85'

V. Radonja← F. Antovski

90+2'

D. Rešetar← A. Marin

90+3'

T. Kraykov← V. Botnar

90+3'

D. Faizullin↳ S. Magkeev

Dinamo

Lokomotiv

51

▼

Botnar

42

Lapshov

37

A

Magkeev

48

Sukharev

62

▼

Loginov

74

Chyorny

76

▼

Karapuzov

73

▼

Petrov

38

Titkov

68

▼

93

1

8

6

3

▼

2

5

10

4

11

▼

Baturina

7

A

▼

Marin

9

⚽

Šipoš

Manager: I. Jovičević

82'▲D. Kapitanović←▼R. Baturina

85'▲V. Radonja←▼F. Antovski

90+2'▲D. Rešetar←▼A. Marin

Dinamo Zagreb U19 substitutes

17Kapitanović13Radonja18Rešetar12Josipović15Pavlak14Kočar16Julardžija

Manager: A. Katasonov

46'▲D. Faizullin←▼V. Karapuzov

46'▲G. Osnov←▼V. Loginov

65'▲D. Chernyakov←▼M. Petrov

82'▲M. Turischev←▼N. Iosifov

90+3'▲T. Kraykov←▼V. Botnar

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 substitutes

50Faizullin95Osnov78Chernyakov90Turischev66Kraykov82Petukhov63Sharkov

UEFA Youth League: Dinamo Zagreb U19 1–1 Lokomotiv Moskva U19

Dinamo Zagreb U19 and Lokomotiv Moskva U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on February 19, 2019.

Goals: L. Šipoš (12'), D. Faizullin (90+3').

The match was played at Stadion Hitrec Kacian (Zagreb).

Dinamo Zagreb U19 vs Lokomotiv Moskva U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Dinamo Zagreb U19 1–1 Lokomotiv Moskva U19