Dinamo Zagreb U19 1–1 Liverpool U19: Result & Stats

Dinamo Zagreb U19

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Liverpool U19

L. Šipoš 68'

B. Duncan 53'

3/12/2019

UEFA Youth League · 8th FinalsStadion Hitrec Kacian (Zagreb)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb U1950%

×Draw24%

Liverpool U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Zagreb U19Expected goals in this matchLiverpool U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.22

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.76

Liverpool U19

1.22

Dinamo Zagreb U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

1.64

creates per match

1.53

0.91

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.64

Liverpool U19

1.53

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.91

Liverpool U19

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Liverpool U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb U19 ↓

Liverpool U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb U19 or draw

73%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 or Liverpool U19

76%

Draw or Liverpool U19

50%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+

27%

Liverpool U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals

83%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals

52%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals

26%

Liverpool U19 1+ goals

70%

Liverpool U19 2+ goals

34%

Liverpool U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Liverpool U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb U19 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Liverpool U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 1.64 + Liverpool U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.76

Liverpool U19 attack 1.53 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more

50%

level

24%

Liverpool U19 scores more

27%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

D. Atherton← V. Jaros

53'

B. Duncan↳ P. Glatzel

61'

R. Baturina← E. Julardžija

68'

L. Šipoš↳ A. Marin

82'

L. Clarkson← J. Cain

Dinamo

Liverpool

1

▼

5

4

3

6

8

7

2

11

▼

Cain

10

⚽

Duncan

9

A

1

8

6

3

2

5

11

4

10

▼

Julardžij

7

A

Marin

9

⚽

Šipoš

Manager: I. Jovičević

61'▲R. Baturina←▼E. Julardžija

Dinamo Zagreb U19 substitutes

18Baturina15Kočar14Jelenić13Radonja17Kapitanović16Pavlak12Josipović

Manager: B. Lewtas

46'▲D. Atherton←▼V. Jaros

82'▲L. Clarkson←▼J. Cain

Liverpool U19 substitutes

13Atherton15Clarkson17Savage14Dixon-Bonner16Walls18Ritaccio12Larouci