Dinamo Zagreb II 3–1 Orijent 1919: Result & Stats

Dinamo Zagreb II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Orijent 1919

M. Ćuže 90'

B. Barišić 54', 12'

N. Mohorovičić 9'

5/8/2022

First NL · Round 27Stadion Kranjčevićeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb II48%

×Draw26%

Orijent 191926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Zagreb IIExpected goals in this matchOrijent 1919

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.06

Dinamo Zagreb II

1.53

Orijent 1919

1.06

Dinamo Zagreb II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 109 away

1.52

creates per match

1.32

0.80

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb II

1.52

Orijent 1919

1.32

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb II

0.80

Orijent 1919

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par

Orijent 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb II ↓

Orijent 1919 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb II or draw

74%

Dinamo Zagreb II or Orijent 1919

74%

Draw or Orijent 1919

52%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+

24%

Orijent 1919 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals

78%

Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals

45%

Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals

20%

Orijent 1919 1+ goals

65%

Orijent 1919 2+ goals

29%

Orijent 1919 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)

65%

Orijent 1919 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.80 · 56 matches

Orijent 1919 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.54 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 1.52 + Orijent 1919 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.53

Orijent 1919 attack 1.32 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dinamo Zagreb II scores more

48%

level

26%

Orijent 1919 scores more

26%

Dinamo Zagreb II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

9'

12'

16'

46'

54'

63'

P. Srzentić← G. Gadže

71'

R. Burton← M. Vukotić

71'

T. Krizmanić← M. Mamić

75'

J. Delibegović← N. Mohorovičić

77'

F. Brekalo← D. Daničić

82'

I. Laća← B. Barišić

83'

E. Demirovič← K. Senčar

88'

88'

90+4'

90'

Dinamo

Orijent

30

20

23

4

3

▼

Senčar

15

Macolić

24

▼

Gadže

7

Fatić

19

⚽

▼

8

14

1

2

7

▼

Mamić

14

▼

Katinić

5

Braun

8

⚽

Ćuže

3

▼

Daničić

10

▼

Vukotić

6

Duvnjak

9

⚽2

▼

Barišić

11

Rukavina

Manager: D. Krznar

46'▲M. Soldo←▼M. Katinić

71'▲R. Burton←▼M. Vukotić

71'▲T. Krizmanić←▼M. Mamić

77'▲F. Brekalo←▼D. Daničić

82'▲I. Laća←▼B. Barišić

Dinamo Zagreb II substitutes

17Soldo4Burton18Krizmanić15Brekalo19Laća20Ali13Hedaif12Zadro16Palić

Manager: E. Flego

63'▲P. Srzentić←▼G. Gadže

75'▲J. Delibegović←▼N. Mohorovičić

83'▲E. Demirovič←▼K. Senčar

Orijent 1919 substitutes

5Srzentić22Delibegović17Demirovič1Boglić9Petrović13Biškupović28Tadejević29Komorski25Stefanović