Dinamo Zagreb II 1–0 Medjimurje Cakovec

Dinamo Zagreb II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Medjimurje Cakovec

11/3/2018

First NL · Round 11Stadion Maksimir (Zagreb)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb II63%

×Draw21%

Medjimurje Cakovec16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Zagreb IIExpected goals in this matchMedjimurje Cakovec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.85

Dinamo Zagreb II

1.94

Medjimurje Cakovec

0.85

Dinamo Zagreb II creates 128% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 39 away

1.52

creates per match

0.90

0.80

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb II

1.52

Medjimurje Cakovec

0.90

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb II

0.80

Medjimurje Cakovec

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par

Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb II ↓

Medjimurje Cakovec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb II or draw

84%

Dinamo Zagreb II or Medjimurje Cakovec

79%

Draw or Medjimurje Cakovec

37%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+

38%

Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals

86%

Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals

58%

Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals

30%

Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals

57%

Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals

21%

Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)

80%

Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.80 · 56 matches

Medjimurje Cakovec away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 1.52 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.94

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 0.90 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dinamo Zagreb II scores more

63%

level

21%

Medjimurje Cakovec scores more

16%

Dinamo Zagreb II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff