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Dinamo Zagreb II vs Inter Zapresic — First NL 2018

Dinamo Zagreb II
Dinamo Zagreb II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
5/12/2021First NLFirst NL · Round 31Stadion Kranjčevićeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb II47%
×Draw27%
Inter Zapresic26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zagreb II
1.43
Inter Zapresic
1.00

Dinamo Zagreb II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 32 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb II
1.51
Inter Zapresic
1.19

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb II
0.82
Inter Zapresic
1.34

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par
Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb II ↓

Inter Zapresic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb II or draw
74%
Dinamo Zagreb II or Inter Zapresic
73%
Draw or Inter Zapresic
53%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+
23%
Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals
76%
Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals
42%
Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals
17%
Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
63%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
26%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)
64%
Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 1.51 + Inter Zapresic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Inter Zapresic attack 1.19 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dinamo Zagreb II scores more
47%
level
27%
Inter Zapresic scores more
26%

Dinamo Zagreb II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Zagreb II vs Inter Zapresic

Dinamo Zagreb II and Inter Zapresic drew 1-1 in First NL on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kranjčevićeva in Zagreb.