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Dinamo Zagreb II vs Croatia Zmijavci — First NL 2018

Dinamo Zagreb II
Dinamo Zagreb II
CANC
00:00
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia Zmijavci
4/26/2020First NLFirst NL · Round 26Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb II55%
×Draw25%
Croatia Zmijavci20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zagreb II
1.59
Croatia Zmijavci
0.86

Dinamo Zagreb II creates 85% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 109 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb II
1.51
Croatia Zmijavci
0.90

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb II
0.82
Croatia Zmijavci
1.67

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par
Croatia Zmijavci+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb II ↓

Croatia Zmijavci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb II or draw
80%
Dinamo Zagreb II or Croatia Zmijavci
75%
Draw or Croatia Zmijavci
45%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+
29%
Croatia Zmijavci wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals
47%
Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals
21%
Croatia Zmijavci 1+ goals
58%
Croatia Zmijavci 2+ goals
21%
Croatia Zmijavci 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)
73%
Croatia Zmijavci (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

Croatia Zmijavci away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.67 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 1.51 + Croatia Zmijavci defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Croatia Zmijavci attack 0.90 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dinamo Zagreb II scores more
55%
level
25%
Croatia Zmijavci scores more
20%

Dinamo Zagreb II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo Zagreb II host Croatia Zmijavci

April 26, 2020: Dinamo Zagreb II take on Croatia Zmijavci in First NL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dinamo Zagreb II host Croatia Zmijavci at Stadion Maksimir.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.